**Author**: Sheldon M. Ross

**Publisher:** Academic Press

**ISBN:** 9780123756879

**Category : **Mathematics

**Languages : **en

**Pages : **800

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**Book Description**
Introduction to Probability Models, Tenth Edition, provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes. There are two approaches to the study of probability theory. One is heuristic and nonrigorous, and attempts to develop in students an intuitive feel for the subject that enables him or her to think probabilistically. The other approach attempts a rigorous development of probability by using the tools of measure theory. The first approach is employed in this text. The book begins by introducing basic concepts of probability theory, such as the random variable, conditional probability, and conditional expectation. This is followed by discussions of stochastic processes, including Markov chains and Poison processes. The remaining chapters cover queuing, reliability theory, Brownian motion, and simulation. Many examples are worked out throughout the text, along with exercises to be solved by students. This book will be particularly useful to those interested in learning how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. Ideally, this text would be used in a one-year course in probability models, or a one-semester course in introductory probability theory or a course in elementary stochastic processes. New to this Edition: 65% new chapter material including coverage of finite capacity queues, insurance risk models and Markov chains Contains compulsory material for new Exam 3 of the Society of Actuaries containing several sections in the new exams Updated data, and a list of commonly used notations and equations, a robust ancillary package, including a ISM, SSM, and test bank Includes SPSS PASW Modeler and SAS JMP software packages which are widely used in the field Hallmark features: Superior writing style Excellent exercises and examples covering the wide breadth of coverage of probability topics Real-world applications in engineering, science, business and economics

**Author**: Sheldon M. Ross

**Publisher:** Academic Press

**ISBN:** 9780123756879

**Category : **Mathematics

**Languages : **en

**Pages : **800

**View**

**Book Description**
Introduction to Probability Models, Tenth Edition, provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes. There are two approaches to the study of probability theory. One is heuristic and nonrigorous, and attempts to develop in students an intuitive feel for the subject that enables him or her to think probabilistically. The other approach attempts a rigorous development of probability by using the tools of measure theory. The first approach is employed in this text. The book begins by introducing basic concepts of probability theory, such as the random variable, conditional probability, and conditional expectation. This is followed by discussions of stochastic processes, including Markov chains and Poison processes. The remaining chapters cover queuing, reliability theory, Brownian motion, and simulation. Many examples are worked out throughout the text, along with exercises to be solved by students. This book will be particularly useful to those interested in learning how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. Ideally, this text would be used in a one-year course in probability models, or a one-semester course in introductory probability theory or a course in elementary stochastic processes. New to this Edition: 65% new chapter material including coverage of finite capacity queues, insurance risk models and Markov chains Contains compulsory material for new Exam 3 of the Society of Actuaries containing several sections in the new exams Updated data, and a list of commonly used notations and equations, a robust ancillary package, including a ISM, SSM, and test bank Includes SPSS PASW Modeler and SAS JMP software packages which are widely used in the field Hallmark features: Superior writing style Excellent exercises and examples covering the wide breadth of coverage of probability topics Real-world applications in engineering, science, business and economics

**Author**: John Haigh

**Publisher:** Springer Science & Business Media

**ISBN:** 144715343X

**Category : **Mathematics

**Languages : **en

**Pages : **287

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**Book Description**
The purpose of this book is to provide a sound introduction to the study of real-world phenomena that possess random variation. It describes how to set up and analyse models of real-life phenomena that involve elements of chance. Motivation comes from everyday experiences of probability, such as that of a dice or cards, the idea of fairness in games of chance, and the random ways in which, say, birthdays are shared or particular events arise. Applications include branching processes, random walks, Markov chains, queues, renewal theory, and Brownian motion. This textbook contains many worked examples and several chapters have been updated and expanded for the second edition. Some mathematical knowledge is assumed. The reader should have the ability to work with unions, intersections and complements of sets; a good facility with calculus, including integration, sequences and series; and appreciation of the logical development of an argument. Probability Models is designed to aid students studying probability as part of an undergraduate course on mathematics or mathematics and statistics.

**Author**: Roger B. Myerson

**Publisher:** MIT Press

**ISBN:** 0262355604

**Category : **Business & Economics

**Languages : **en

**Pages : **568

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**Book Description**
An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

**Author**: Sheldon M. Ross

**Publisher:** Academic Press

**ISBN:** 0080920179

**Category : **Mathematics

**Languages : **en

**Pages : **800

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**Book Description**
Ross's classic bestseller, Introduction to Probability Models, has been used extensively by professionals and as the primary text for a first undergraduate course in applied probability. It provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes, and shows how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. With the addition of several new sections relating to actuaries, this text is highly recommended by the Society of Actuaries. A new section (3.7) on COMPOUND RANDOM VARIABLES, that can be used to establish a recursive formula for computing probability mass functions for a variety of common compounding distributions. A new section (4.11) on HIDDDEN MARKOV CHAINS, including the forward and backward approaches for computing the joint probability mass function of the signals, as well as the Viterbi algorithm for determining the most likely sequence of states. Simplified Approach for Analyzing Nonhomogeneous Poisson processes Additional results on queues relating to the (a) conditional distribution of the number found by an M/M/1 arrival who spends a time t in the system; (b) inspection paradox for M/M/1 queues (c) M/G/1 queue with server breakdown Many new examples and exercises.

**Author**: Michael A. Fligner

**Publisher:** Springer Science & Business Media

**ISBN:** 1461227380

**Category : **Mathematics

**Languages : **en

**Pages : **306

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**Book Description**
In June of 1990, a conference was held on Probablity Models and Statisti cal Analyses for Ranking Data, under the joint auspices of the American Mathematical Society, the Institute for Mathematical Statistics, and the Society of Industrial and Applied Mathematicians. The conference took place at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and was attended by 36 participants, including statisticians, mathematicians, psychologists and sociologists from the United States, Canada, Israel, Italy, and The Nether lands. There were 18 presentations on a wide variety of topics involving ranking data. This volume is a collection of 14 of these presentations, as well as 5 miscellaneous papers that were contributed by conference participants. We would like to thank Carole Kohanski, summer program coordinator for the American Mathematical Society, for her assistance in arranging the conference; M. Steigerwald for preparing the manuscripts for publication; Martin Gilchrist at Springer-Verlag for editorial advice; and Persi Diaconis for contributing the Foreword. Special thanks go to the anonymous referees for their careful readings and constructive comments. Finally, we thank the National Science Foundation for their sponsorship of the AMS-IMS-SIAM Joint Summer Programs. Contents Preface vii Conference Participants xiii Foreword xvii 1 Ranking Models with Item Covariates 1 D. E. Critchlow and M. A. Fligner 1. 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1. 2 Basic Ranking Models and Their Parameters 2 1. 3 Ranking Models with Covariates 8 1. 4 Estimation 9 1. 5 Example. 11 1. 6 Discussion. 14 1. 7 Appendix . 15 1. 8 References.

**Author**: Mostapha Diss

**Publisher:** Springer Nature

**ISBN:** 3030485986

**Category : **Business & Economics

**Languages : **en

**Pages : **403

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**Book Description**
This book includes up-to-date contributions in the broadly defined area of probabilistic analysis of voting rules and decision mechanisms. Featuring papers from all fields of social choice and game theory, it presents probability arguments to allow readers to gain a better understanding of the properties of decision rules and of the functioning of modern democracies. In particular, it focuses on the legacy of William Gehrlein and Dominique Lepelley, two prominent scholars who have made important contributions to this field over the last fifty years. It covers a range of topics, including (but not limited to) computational and technical aspects of probability approaches, evaluation of the likelihood of voting paradoxes, power indices, empirical evaluations of voting rules, models of votersâ€™ behavior, and strategic voting. The book gathers articles written in honor of Gehrlein and Lepelley along with original works written by the two scholars themselves.

**Author**: James H.C. Creighton

**Publisher:** Springer Science & Business Media

**ISBN:** 1441985409

**Category : **Mathematics

**Languages : **en

**Pages : **719

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**Book Description**
Welcome to new territory: A course in probability models and statistical inference. The concept of probability is not new to you of course. You've encountered it since childhood in games of chance-card games, for example, or games with dice or coins. And you know about the "90% chance of rain" from weather reports. But once you get beyond simple expressions of probability into more subtle analysis, it's new territory. And very foreign territory it is. You must have encountered reports of statistical results in voter sur veys, opinion polls, and other such studies, but how are conclusions from those studies obtained? How can you interview just a few voters the day before an election and still determine fairly closely how HUN DREDS of THOUSANDS of voters will vote? That's statistics. You'll find it very interesting during this first course to see how a properly designed statistical study can achieve so much knowledge from such drastically incomplete information. It really is possible-statistics works! But HOW does it work? By the end of this course you'll have understood that and much more. Welcome to the enchanted forest.

**Author**: Rick Durrett

**Publisher:** Springer Science & Business Media

**ISBN:** 1475762852

**Category : **Mathematics

**Languages : **en

**Pages : **241

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**Book Description**
"What underlying forces are responsible for the observed patterns of variability, given a collection of DNA sequences?" In approaching this question a number of probability models are introduced and anyalyzed.Throughout the book, the theory is developed in close connection with data from more than 60 experimental studies that illustrate the use of these results.

**Author**: Sheldon M. Ross

**Publisher:** Courier Corporation

**ISBN:** 0486673146

**Category : **Mathematics

**Languages : **en

**Pages : **198

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**Book Description**
Includes bibliographical references and index.

**Author**: Madelaine Carey Ramey

**Publisher:**
**ISBN:**
**Category : **
**Languages : **en

**Pages : **188

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**Book Description**